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[Music]

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welcome to the skeptic zone

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the podcast from australia for science

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and reason

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[Music]

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yes it's the skeptics on podcast episode

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number 627

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for the 18th of october 2020 richard

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saunders

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coming to you from sydney australia

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hmm a little bit overcast a bit of rain

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last night but not a bad sort of a day

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coming up on this week's episode we have

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part three of heidi robertson's

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interview with brian dear

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brian dear the man who wrote the book

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the doctor who fooled the world

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about andrew wakefield and the mmr

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vaccine

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slash autism controversy which really

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wasn't a controversy in the

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end and amongst other things we find out

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the link to uh

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l macpherson the australian model and

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following that it's

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logical fallacies with michelle

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bickersma

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and this week michelle looks at weasel

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words

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that might be interesting no that's not

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a weasel what's a good example of a

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weasel word find out

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find out with michelle's segment later

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on in the show

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any politicians listening can get some

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tips and then we have another

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installment of the book of tim

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with tim menden and this week tim will

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be looking at

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wishful thinking risky business gambling

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and more then to round off the show we

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continue in our series looking into the

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archive of australian newspapers and

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reports so on

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magazines a dive into the trove we go

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and uh look for references over the

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decades to the term

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esp yes it's an old-fashioned term you

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really don't hear it anymore

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extra sensory perception

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now before we really start the show it's

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less than a week

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and by the time you're hearing this it

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might be very much less than a week

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until the australian skeptics national

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convention skepticon 2020.

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we've been telling you lots about it in

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the lead up

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with mentioning some of the fabulous

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international and local

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speakers lined up and no matter where

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you are

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around the world you can join us this

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year for skeptic on 2020.

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if you haven't got your tickets yet

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now's the time go to skepticon.org

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org skepticon.org oig.au

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or you can google australian skeptics or

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you'll find it easily enough on the show

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notes

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for the last several months in fact

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there is a link to skepticon.org.au

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i'm very much looking forward to talks

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by michael marshall and alice howarth

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and people like dr karl kuzelnisky and

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the list

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just goes on and i'll be playing my part

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i'm announcing

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the bench spoon award this year

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and my colleagues tim mendenham and

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jessica singer

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here in sydney will be announcing some

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of our other awards like the media award

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or the

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uh the skeptic of the year and things

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like that it'll be so nice to take part

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in a skeptical event

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again i've been missing that a lot this

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year

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i think honestly i think the last uh

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event i

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i was at and gave a talk was a skepty

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camp

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in victoria at the beautiful aries inlet

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and what a wonderful time i had what a

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what a really nice couple of days that

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was folks

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i stayed in anglesey with my friend

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michelle biggesmar

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and our colleague steve roberts

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the ufo expert was there too and some

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other people

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we had japanese pancakes we had some

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nice wine we looked at the stars

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yeah i do miss all that lovely social

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aspect of being a skeptic

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well i'm sure those days will return but

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at least we can enjoy

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being together online but now it's time

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for me to run downstairs tiptoe over the

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cats in fact i won't do that because i

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must admit there's one right

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right over there aren't you oh yes

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what do you want who who's she's had her

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breakfast that's moored hello maude

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yeah she's a bit she's a bit confused

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because i've done a lot of vacuuming

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cleaning lately

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and suddenly things are not where

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they're supposed to be

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well i'm gonna run downstairs anyway get

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myself a nice fresh cup of coffee

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and some vegemite toast as ever

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the old favorite while i do that i hope

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you enjoy

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[Applause]

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it's the raw skeptic report with heidi

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robinson

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[Music]

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hello everyone today i present part

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three of my three-part interview with

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brian dear

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the man who wrote the book the doctor

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who fooled the world

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about mr andrew wakefield and the

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so-called

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link between vaccinations and autism

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today brian tells us about the impact of

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wakefield's work on vaccination rates

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the other authors involved in the

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original paper

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and the link to supermodel l macpherson

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mr brian dear welcome to the skeptic

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zone hello heidi good to be here

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what was the impact of the landsat paper

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on

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even

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abroad oh in the uk the vaccination

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rates dropped like a stone wakeful had

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us

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an earlier paper slightly earlier than

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the one we'd be talking about from

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february 1990 i had one in 1995

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where he tried to pin bowel disease on

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the mmr vaccine and from that point and

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then accelerating with the

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1998 paper and then other stuff vaccine

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rates

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drop like a brick down a well as parents

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become

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became more and more concerned and by

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the time i came to this story because i

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didn't begin my investigation until the

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autumn

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of 2003 by that time vaccination rates

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were down in the 70s in

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in much of the country we were starting

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to see the first outbreaks of measles

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parents were agonizing over whether to

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vaccinate their children

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parents of children with developmental

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issues were blaming themselves suffering

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the agony of guilt of believing it was

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their own fault for vaccinating their

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child that their child had autism

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we had all of that and then that rolled

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out from the uk to the rest of the world

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so

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with what fake foods campaigning and

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then he moved to the united states the

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that story that was really paid for by

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this 100 million us dollar lawsuit

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uh all of the work behind that the

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parental

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anxiety the campaign groups and all that

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was then exported to the united states

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and set off the chain of events that

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leads us to where we are today with the

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anti-vaccine movement

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yeah yeah and what about the other

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authors

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on the paper because uh wakefield wasn't

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the only author on the paper there were

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several others

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tell us about the other authors and the

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fallout and what happened with them

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yeah well obviously what wakefield does

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and he's got a pal called big tree in

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the states who set himself up as a

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autism guru a former tabloid television

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um field producer um saying oh look

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there were all these other authors

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it wasn't just wakefield so me my

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colleagues and i

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what he done was get a whole bunch of

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people

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everybody who who well all my well

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everybody in the hospital

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who'd even pretty much seen one of these

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children he put on the paper

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there were another 12 authors there were

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pathologists there was a neurologist

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there was a

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pediatric psychiatrist and uh several

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gastroenterologists these other authors

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actually

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didn't satisfy the criteria for

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authorship of that paper

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because to be accepted as an author of

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paper under the standard terms for

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biomedical publishing you have to have

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an involvement in multiple aspects of

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the trial these other these other

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authors

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some of whom were juniors none of whom

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were eminent in any way

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one was a professor of pediatric

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gastroenterology a very

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a very small very small size specialty

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not an eminent man

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significant within his with his thing

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even he

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never knew which child was which in the

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paper and he said well

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the data in this paper were presented to

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me by wakefield

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in a sort of master chart and then when

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he was questioned about this at the

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general medical council hearing

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he said well i trusted dr wakefield and

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that's

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true of them all they were just happy to

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have their names on a paper in the

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lancet

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and um the the the juniors were in no

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position to to question it the other

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authors were in no position to identify

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which child was which

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that paper was written by wakefield and

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even when other authors

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made suggestions when some of them saw

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the drafts of the paper

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it was up to him whether he took any

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notice of what they said so

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the the idea that there were all these

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other authors that were endorsing what

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wakeford said is extremely misleading

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and then

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after my first story the the authors

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came together and retracted the

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interpretation

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section the inter there's a section of

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the paper called the interpretation

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and it was within that that they claimed

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a potential link a possible link an

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association between the mmr vaccine and

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autism

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and they retracted that in a partial

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retraction of the paper and then the

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paper was fully retracted

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after the general medical council

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hearing retracted by the journal who

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opposed the general medical council

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hearing in the first place

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now there's a very uh important aspect

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of

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this story that uh that we have to cover

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and that is that andrew wakefield is now

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linked with former supermodel l

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macpherson

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how on earth did that happen brian well

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they met at say

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an anti-vaccine conference what she was

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doing there i don't know she's big in

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the wellness industry i know that and

286
00:10:40,949 --> 00:10:39,440
they are seated together at a table and

287
00:10:42,870 --> 00:10:40,959
obviously he would be tremendously

288
00:10:45,030 --> 00:10:42,880
interested in her because not only

289
00:10:47,110 --> 00:10:45,040
has she been on the front of sports

290
00:10:49,110 --> 00:10:47,120
illustrated i think it was five times

291
00:10:51,190 --> 00:10:49,120
uh but she also was the recently

292
00:10:54,790 --> 00:10:51,200
divorced wife of a billionaire

293
00:10:57,590 --> 00:10:54,800
um so he obviously was happy to see her

294
00:10:59,509 --> 00:10:57,600
and she she bought in to all this stuff

295
00:11:01,590 --> 00:10:59,519
about how he'd been persecuted and none

296
00:11:02,870 --> 00:11:01,600
of it's true it's all a pack of lies and

297
00:11:04,870 --> 00:11:02,880
he was an innocent man

298
00:11:06,550 --> 00:11:04,880
and he'd given his life for the sake of

299
00:11:09,110 --> 00:11:06,560
the children and all that stuff

300
00:11:10,790 --> 00:11:09,120
she bought into that but as i understand

301
00:11:12,550 --> 00:11:10,800
it i mean i spoke to somebody

302
00:11:14,470 --> 00:11:12,560
one of his business associates just a

303
00:11:16,069 --> 00:11:14,480
few months ago who told me that the

304
00:11:18,870 --> 00:11:16,079
relationship with um

305
00:11:20,710 --> 00:11:18,880
l macpherson was really in some sense

306
00:11:22,470 --> 00:11:20,720
possibly on the back burner now

307
00:11:24,150 --> 00:11:22,480
she's made an announcement saying she's

308
00:11:26,310 --> 00:11:24,160
not engaged to him after there's been

309
00:11:28,949 --> 00:11:26,320
speculation in the press that they were

310
00:11:29,910 --> 00:11:28,959
engaged so it doesn't look as though

311
00:11:32,550 --> 00:11:29,920
it's um

312
00:11:33,350 --> 00:11:32,560
it's quite as um solid as people are

313
00:11:35,829 --> 00:11:33,360
making out

314
00:11:36,470 --> 00:11:35,839
but i just imagine it would be it would

315
00:11:39,350 --> 00:11:36,480
be

316
00:11:39,750 --> 00:11:39,360
a wonderful scene to witness of her and

317
00:11:42,230 --> 00:11:39,760
him

318
00:11:44,069 --> 00:11:42,240
sitting by the swimming pool in miami at

319
00:11:46,550 --> 00:11:44,079
one of her homes in miami

320
00:11:48,550 --> 00:11:46,560
and her saying reading my book the

321
00:11:50,230 --> 00:11:48,560
doctor who fooled the world which anyone

322
00:11:52,310 --> 00:11:50,240
can get from um

323
00:11:53,350 --> 00:11:52,320
from amazon's the easiest way to get it

324
00:11:55,509 --> 00:11:53,360
is from amazon

325
00:11:57,110 --> 00:11:55,519
or from ask at your local bookshop and

326
00:11:58,550 --> 00:11:57,120
get it from amazon would be even better

327
00:12:01,269 --> 00:11:58,560
because then the bookshop might

328
00:12:01,990 --> 00:12:01,279
get more in stock but so she's sitting

329
00:12:04,310 --> 00:12:02,000
by the pool

330
00:12:06,150 --> 00:12:04,320
reading the doctor who fooled the world

331
00:12:09,190 --> 00:12:06,160
and she says well

332
00:12:11,910 --> 00:12:09,200
andy you said to me blah blah blah blah

333
00:12:13,910 --> 00:12:11,920
and it says here blah blah blah blah and

334
00:12:15,030 --> 00:12:13,920
he says it's all lies it's all lies all

335
00:12:18,710 --> 00:12:15,040
the fabrication

336
00:12:20,710 --> 00:12:18,720
and uh she says well um that k

337
00:12:22,150 --> 00:12:20,720
is see you're saying it's all it's all

338
00:12:23,509 --> 00:12:22,160
this is malicious liable and he'll say

339
00:12:24,790 --> 00:12:23,519
yes it's malicious libel

340
00:12:26,870 --> 00:12:24,800
and she'll probably say well you need to

341
00:12:30,230 --> 00:12:26,880
go and see see my lawyer

342
00:12:33,350 --> 00:12:30,240
and um and uh indeed he's he's already

343
00:12:35,269 --> 00:12:33,360
sort of raising the specter of um of

344
00:12:35,829 --> 00:12:35,279
litigation over my book but all i can

345
00:12:37,590 --> 00:12:35,839
say is i

346
00:12:39,110 --> 00:12:37,600
i don't want litigation nobody in their

347
00:12:40,150 --> 00:12:39,120
right mind wants to spend their time in

348
00:12:43,030 --> 00:12:40,160
lawsuits but

349
00:12:44,310 --> 00:12:43,040
if he sues he'll lose yeah absolutely

350
00:12:47,030 --> 00:12:44,320
you've got everything

351
00:12:49,110 --> 00:12:47,040
well documented and and backed up and

352
00:12:51,509 --> 00:12:49,120
referenced in the book now

353
00:12:52,230 --> 00:12:51,519
so you mentioned people can get your

354
00:12:54,790 --> 00:12:52,240
book on

355
00:12:56,069 --> 00:12:54,800
amazon or i guess in every good

356
00:12:57,910 --> 00:12:56,079
bookstore

357
00:12:59,110 --> 00:12:57,920
yep amazon's probably the easiest way

358
00:13:01,350 --> 00:12:59,120
much of australia but

359
00:13:02,790 --> 00:13:01,360
um save you a bit of driving and the

360
00:13:04,389 --> 00:13:02,800
lockdown issues but

361
00:13:06,550 --> 00:13:04,399
yes it's out there and it's in the

362
00:13:08,550 --> 00:13:06,560
bookshops and um

363
00:13:10,389 --> 00:13:08,560
it's now actually just gone on sale in

364
00:13:12,389 --> 00:13:10,399
north america so it's um

365
00:13:13,670 --> 00:13:12,399
it's now getting a bit of publicity it's

366
00:13:15,670 --> 00:13:13,680
had a lot of press in

367
00:13:17,990 --> 00:13:15,680
the australian press which has been nice

368
00:13:19,590 --> 00:13:18,000
oh it's fantastic and i tell you what i

369
00:13:20,069 --> 00:13:19,600
got my hands on a copy as soon as i

370
00:13:22,790 --> 00:13:20,079
possibly

371
00:13:23,269 --> 00:13:22,800
could and i couldn't put it down it was

372
00:13:27,190 --> 00:13:23,279
um

373
00:13:31,190 --> 00:13:27,200
it was absolutely enthralling disturbing

374
00:13:31,670 --> 00:13:31,200
and uh it had me on the edge of my seat

375
00:13:35,590 --> 00:13:31,680
the whole

376
00:13:39,110 --> 00:13:35,600
much for

377
00:13:40,069 --> 00:13:39,120
both writing the book and for joining us

378
00:13:41,750 --> 00:13:40,079
today

379
00:13:44,069 --> 00:13:41,760
on the skeptic zone we've really enjoyed

380
00:13:48,949 --> 00:13:44,079
having you my pleasure heidi thank you

381
00:13:51,430 --> 00:13:48,959
very much

382
00:13:53,670 --> 00:13:51,440
thank you to briandear for taking time

383
00:13:54,230 --> 00:13:53,680
to appear on the skeptic zone over the

384
00:13:56,949 --> 00:13:54,240
past

385
00:13:58,150 --> 00:13:56,959
three weeks you can find a link to

386
00:14:01,030 --> 00:13:58,160
brian's book

387
00:14:02,069 --> 00:14:01,040
in this week's show notes this has been

388
00:14:04,629 --> 00:14:02,079
heidi robertson

389
00:14:06,310 --> 00:14:04,639
from the northern rivers vaccination

390
00:14:12,790 --> 00:14:06,320
supporters

391
00:14:15,030 --> 00:14:12,800
you can find us at www.nrvs.info

392
00:14:17,750 --> 00:14:15,040
or just look for us on facebook at the

393
00:14:18,550 --> 00:14:17,760
northern rivers vaccination supporters

394
00:14:27,269 --> 00:14:18,560
bye for now

395
00:14:32,790 --> 00:14:30,310
oh hi maynard oh hi heidi

396
00:14:34,310 --> 00:14:32,800
great day in this park yeah if you like

397
00:14:37,670 --> 00:14:34,320
that sort of thing

398
00:14:40,629 --> 00:14:37,680
look over there a yowie

399
00:14:42,150 --> 00:14:40,639
there are no such things as yowie silly

400
00:14:45,750 --> 00:14:42,160
hmm

401
00:14:46,310 --> 00:14:45,760
might be just a dog a big dog i think

402
00:14:49,350 --> 00:14:46,320
it's a

403
00:14:52,870 --> 00:14:49,360
king charles spaniel thing no no

404
00:14:55,189 --> 00:14:52,880
no no no it's a yowie maynard

405
00:14:56,389 --> 00:14:55,199
if it's a choice between it being a dog

406
00:14:59,990 --> 00:14:56,399
or a yowie

407
00:15:02,870 --> 00:15:00,000
no no no it's a yowie yeah we yeah

408
00:15:03,829 --> 00:15:02,880
yeah we argument from authority it's a

409
00:15:07,269 --> 00:15:03,839
yowie

410
00:15:09,350 --> 00:15:07,279
hey you two what are you arguing about

411
00:15:11,269 --> 00:15:09,360
maynard thinks that dog looking thing

412
00:15:14,470 --> 00:15:11,279
over there is a yowie

413
00:15:18,069 --> 00:15:14,480
a yowie or maybe

414
00:15:20,470 --> 00:15:18,079
chewbacca the wookie

415
00:15:21,910 --> 00:15:20,480
i see okay we better look this up in the

416
00:15:26,150 --> 00:15:21,920
skeptics dictionary

417
00:15:28,230 --> 00:15:26,160
online the skeptic's dictionary online

418
00:15:31,030 --> 00:15:28,240
features definitions arguments and

419
00:15:32,790 --> 00:15:31,040
essays on hundreds of strange beliefs

420
00:15:35,749 --> 00:15:32,800
amusing descriptions and

421
00:15:38,550 --> 00:15:35,759
dangerous delusions it also features

422
00:15:41,910 --> 00:15:38,560
dozens of entries on logical fallacies

423
00:15:51,790 --> 00:15:41,920
cognitive biases perception science

424
00:15:56,710 --> 00:15:53,509
www.skpdic.com

425
00:16:00,230 --> 00:15:56,720
right heidi prepared to be

426
00:16:04,230 --> 00:16:00,240
amazed okay yeah we ah

427
00:16:07,030 --> 00:16:04,240
here it is it's under bigfoot it says

428
00:16:07,990 --> 00:16:07,040
most scientists discount the evidence of

429
00:16:09,910 --> 00:16:08,000
bigfoot because

430
00:16:11,189 --> 00:16:09,920
the evidence supporting belief in the

431
00:16:14,230 --> 00:16:11,199
survival of the

432
00:16:17,430 --> 00:16:14,240
prehistoric biped ape-like creature

433
00:16:19,670 --> 00:16:17,440
of such dimensions is scant

434
00:16:25,910 --> 00:16:19,680
you know maybe that is just chewbacca

435
00:16:48,829 --> 00:16:35,940
thank you skeptics dictionary online

436
00:16:48,839 --> 00:16:53,430
do

437
00:16:58,550 --> 00:16:55,020
logical fallacies

438
00:17:01,350 --> 00:16:58,560
[Music]

439
00:17:03,189 --> 00:17:01,360
what are logical fallacies and why is it

440
00:17:05,829 --> 00:17:03,199
important that critical thinkers should

441
00:17:08,150 --> 00:17:05,839
know about them

442
00:17:09,829 --> 00:17:08,160
a logical fallacy is an error we can

443
00:17:11,750 --> 00:17:09,839
make in reasoning

444
00:17:16,150 --> 00:17:11,760
but it usually crops up when we are

445
00:17:20,549 --> 00:17:18,230
some people might even knowingly use

446
00:17:21,429 --> 00:17:20,559
them to try and score cheap points in an

447
00:17:24,710 --> 00:17:21,439
argument

448
00:17:27,270 --> 00:17:24,720
due to intellectual laziness

449
00:17:29,110 --> 00:17:27,280
they are traps we can fall into but if

450
00:17:31,190 --> 00:17:29,120
we know what to look out for

451
00:17:34,750 --> 00:17:31,200
we can spot them when they occur and

452
00:17:36,070 --> 00:17:34,760
stop ourselves from using them

453
00:17:39,830 --> 00:17:36,080
[Music]

454
00:17:42,470 --> 00:17:39,840
this time we'll look at weasel words

455
00:17:43,830 --> 00:17:42,480
these are words or phrases that seem to

456
00:17:45,990 --> 00:17:43,840
point in one direction

457
00:17:48,310 --> 00:17:46,000
or give a certain impression but in

458
00:17:51,669 --> 00:17:48,320
reality are often meaningless

459
00:17:54,710 --> 00:17:51,679
or even misleading it can be

460
00:17:57,590 --> 00:17:54,720
hard bordering on impossible to get

461
00:17:59,590 --> 00:17:57,600
some people to use straightforward

462
00:17:59,990 --> 00:17:59,600
no-nonsense language when putting

463
00:18:03,110 --> 00:18:00,000
forward

464
00:18:05,110 --> 00:18:03,120
their point of view we see this so many

465
00:18:06,230 --> 00:18:05,120
times in the world of politics for

466
00:18:08,870 --> 00:18:06,240
example

467
00:18:10,070 --> 00:18:08,880
when so-called spin doctors advise

468
00:18:13,110 --> 00:18:10,080
politicians

469
00:18:15,990 --> 00:18:13,120
on how to not answer questions

470
00:18:18,390 --> 00:18:16,000
but weasel words also pop up in many

471
00:18:21,270 --> 00:18:18,400
other situations

472
00:18:22,150 --> 00:18:21,280
this amazing and all-natural supplement

473
00:18:24,789 --> 00:18:22,160
has been used

474
00:18:26,870 --> 00:18:24,799
traditionally by thousands of people all

475
00:18:30,070 --> 00:18:26,880
over the world for years

476
00:18:31,830 --> 00:18:30,080
it may assist in reducing the length and

477
00:18:35,590 --> 00:18:31,840
severity of a cold

478
00:18:39,029 --> 00:18:35,600
or the flu here the word traditionally

479
00:18:41,029 --> 00:18:39,039
and the word may are the weasel words

480
00:18:42,470 --> 00:18:41,039
it doesn't matter if something has a

481
00:18:45,669 --> 00:18:42,480
long tradition

482
00:18:48,789 --> 00:18:45,679
it still might not work as claimed

483
00:18:52,070 --> 00:18:48,799
but using the word traditionally does

484
00:18:53,990 --> 00:18:52,080
seem to give the claim merit we've

485
00:18:57,270 --> 00:18:54,000
looked at the logical fallacy of

486
00:19:00,310 --> 00:18:57,280
the appeal to tradition before

487
00:19:02,390 --> 00:19:00,320
also using the word may

488
00:19:04,230 --> 00:19:02,400
gives the impression that the claim is

489
00:19:07,590 --> 00:19:04,240
true or at least

490
00:19:11,190 --> 00:19:07,600
could be true but we could also say

491
00:19:12,230 --> 00:19:11,200
may not if the claim is ever proven to

492
00:19:16,789 --> 00:19:12,240
be true

493
00:19:20,310 --> 00:19:16,799
then the words will assist could be used

494
00:19:21,669 --> 00:19:20,320
you think the earth is really billions

495
00:19:25,270 --> 00:19:21,679
of years old and

496
00:19:27,750 --> 00:19:25,280
evolution is real not so fast

497
00:19:29,750 --> 00:19:27,760
there is a growing body of evidence that

498
00:19:33,190 --> 00:19:29,760
creationism is true

499
00:19:35,750 --> 00:19:33,200
as more and more scientists accept

500
00:19:37,029 --> 00:19:35,760
the account given in the bible in this

501
00:19:40,310 --> 00:19:37,039
example

502
00:19:41,029 --> 00:19:40,320
the terms are growing body and more and

503
00:19:44,390 --> 00:19:41,039
more

504
00:19:45,430 --> 00:19:44,400
are the weasel words they sound grand

505
00:19:48,630 --> 00:19:45,440
enough

506
00:19:50,830 --> 00:19:48,640
but where is the raw data from has there

507
00:19:52,230 --> 00:19:50,840
been a proper survey of the relevant

508
00:19:55,190 --> 00:19:52,240
scientists

509
00:19:56,150 --> 00:19:55,200
are these results published without

510
00:19:59,270 --> 00:19:56,160
providing this

511
00:19:59,909 --> 00:19:59,280
extra information the veracity of the

512
00:20:03,350 --> 00:19:59,919
claim

513
00:20:05,190 --> 00:20:03,360
is in doubt i know i can get passionate

514
00:20:06,390 --> 00:20:05,200
from time to time when expressing my

515
00:20:09,430 --> 00:20:06,400
point of view

516
00:20:12,630 --> 00:20:09,440
i would like to say i'm sorry if

517
00:20:16,630 --> 00:20:12,640
anyone took offense to what i said

518
00:20:19,190 --> 00:20:16,640
this is known as the non-apology apology

519
00:20:21,029 --> 00:20:19,200
it gives the impression that someone is

520
00:20:24,710 --> 00:20:21,039
acknowledging a wrongdoing

521
00:20:27,350 --> 00:20:24,720
and trying to make amends but in reality

522
00:20:30,710 --> 00:20:27,360
it's putting the focus on others and

523
00:20:33,830 --> 00:20:30,720
somehow making them at fault

524
00:20:34,310 --> 00:20:33,840
if a real apology was offered it would

525
00:20:37,669 --> 00:20:34,320
sound

526
00:20:43,990 --> 00:20:37,679
something like i would like to say

527
00:20:48,390 --> 00:20:47,110
from advertising to answers given by

528
00:20:51,909 --> 00:20:48,400
politicians

529
00:20:54,789 --> 00:20:51,919
to even everyday conversations

530
00:20:55,510 --> 00:20:54,799
weasel words are a way to use language

531
00:20:58,789 --> 00:20:55,520
itself

532
00:21:00,549 --> 00:20:58,799
as a distraction if you are unsure about

533
00:21:03,909 --> 00:21:00,559
what someone is saying

534
00:21:05,350 --> 00:21:03,919
you have the right to ask them to put it

535
00:21:10,810 --> 00:21:05,360
another way

536
00:21:15,750 --> 00:21:13,669
[Music]

537
00:21:16,710 --> 00:21:15,760
knowing a logical fallacy when you hear

538
00:21:19,510 --> 00:21:16,720
one and

539
00:21:21,990 --> 00:21:19,520
even knowing its name is important when

540
00:21:25,430 --> 00:21:22,000
arguing your point of view

541
00:21:27,830 --> 00:21:25,440
however you may come across as arrogant

542
00:21:28,630 --> 00:21:27,840
and not get very far if you call it out

543
00:21:30,950 --> 00:21:28,640
by name

544
00:21:33,029 --> 00:21:30,960
to your opponent when you hear it being

545
00:21:35,590 --> 00:21:33,039
used

546
00:21:36,390 --> 00:21:35,600
if your opponent calls you out for using

547
00:21:38,630 --> 00:21:36,400
one

548
00:21:41,669 --> 00:21:38,640
it's time to stop and think about how

549
00:21:43,830 --> 00:21:41,679
you are making your case

550
00:21:45,029 --> 00:21:43,840
use your knowledge of logical fallacies

551
00:21:47,750 --> 00:21:45,039
wisely

552
00:21:49,029 --> 00:21:47,760
and remember that even if your point of

553
00:21:51,350 --> 00:21:49,039
view is right

554
00:21:52,630 --> 00:21:51,360
and you know all the pitfalls in arguing

555
00:21:55,110 --> 00:21:52,640
your case

556
00:21:56,310 --> 00:21:55,120
it doesn't always mean you'll win on the

557
00:21:59,590 --> 00:21:56,320
day

558
00:22:02,150 --> 00:21:59,600
and as skeptics we must also remember

559
00:22:05,190 --> 00:22:02,160
that we too can be wrong at times

560
00:22:06,950 --> 00:22:05,200
[Music]

561
00:22:20,070 --> 00:22:06,960
i'm michelle bickersma from the vic

562
00:22:28,670 --> 00:22:24,830
you told me that aliens really

563
00:22:33,350 --> 00:22:31,510
[Music]

564
00:22:36,390 --> 00:22:33,360
did you know the european continent is

565
00:22:38,149 --> 00:22:36,400
home to almost 750 million people living

566
00:22:40,149 --> 00:22:38,159
in 50 different countries

567
00:22:42,230 --> 00:22:40,159
belonging to an even greater number of

568
00:22:44,310 --> 00:22:42,240
ethnicities and believe it or not

569
00:22:45,750 --> 00:22:44,320
only a handful of them list english as

570
00:22:46,950 --> 00:22:45,760
the first or at least one of the

571
00:22:48,390 --> 00:22:46,960
official languages

572
00:22:50,230 --> 00:22:48,400
and there's an amazing amount of

573
00:22:51,990 --> 00:22:50,240
skeptical activism going on out there

574
00:22:53,029 --> 00:22:52,000
that you are not aware of because it's

575
00:22:54,950 --> 00:22:53,039
not in english

576
00:22:56,390 --> 00:22:54,960
yeah because you know pseudoscience

577
00:22:58,310 --> 00:22:56,400
quackery and fake news

578
00:22:59,990 --> 00:22:58,320
do not stop at borders they get

579
00:23:01,990 --> 00:23:00,000
translated to other languages

580
00:23:03,990 --> 00:23:02,000
and transferred across the whole world

581
00:23:05,830 --> 00:23:04,000
so if you're interested in weekly

582
00:23:07,909 --> 00:23:05,840
updates on what's going on

583
00:23:10,070 --> 00:23:07,919
in some of the countries here providing

584
00:23:12,149 --> 00:23:10,080
you with all the interesting facts news

585
00:23:14,070 --> 00:23:12,159
and even some skeptical history

586
00:23:15,750 --> 00:23:14,080
or if you want to hear interviews in

587
00:23:17,510 --> 00:23:15,760
english with brilliant people you

588
00:23:19,669 --> 00:23:17,520
sometimes haven't even heard about

589
00:23:20,870 --> 00:23:19,679
then what you need is to subscribe to

590
00:23:23,190 --> 00:23:20,880
the esp

591
00:23:24,230 --> 00:23:23,200
extra sensory perception you must be

592
00:23:27,669 --> 00:23:24,240
really wrong

593
00:23:28,470 --> 00:23:27,679
no the espsn the european skeptics

594
00:23:30,390 --> 00:23:28,480
podcast

595
00:23:31,830 --> 00:23:30,400
that's right and if you're wondering how

596
00:23:35,190 --> 00:23:31,840
you can find us online

597
00:23:36,149 --> 00:23:35,200
go to thesp.edu and you can also find us

598
00:23:38,789 --> 00:23:36,159
on twitter at

599
00:23:39,990 --> 00:23:38,799
eas podcast underscore eu or you can

600
00:23:42,070 --> 00:23:40,000
like us on facebook

601
00:23:43,750 --> 00:23:42,080
and if you want to subscribe do a quick

602
00:23:45,590 --> 00:23:43,760
search on all the intertubes for the

603
00:23:47,909 --> 00:23:45,600
european skeptics podcast

604
00:23:48,630 --> 00:23:47,919
you'll find us on soundcloud itunes

605
00:23:51,029 --> 00:23:48,640
stitcher

606
00:23:52,470 --> 00:23:51,039
spotify and all the rest the european

607
00:24:05,720 --> 00:23:52,480
skeptics podcast

608
00:24:09,029 --> 00:24:05,730
the real esp experience

609
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:09,039
[Music]

610
00:24:15,269 --> 00:24:12,530
and now a reading from the book of tim

611
00:24:18,050 --> 00:24:15,279
[Music]

612
00:24:23,990 --> 00:24:18,060
with tim mendham

613
00:24:26,470 --> 00:24:24,000
[Music]

614
00:24:28,470 --> 00:24:26,480
hi my name is tim menden i'm the

615
00:24:29,190 --> 00:24:28,480
executive officer of australian skeptics

616
00:24:31,190 --> 00:24:29,200
inc

617
00:24:32,870 --> 00:24:31,200
and i'm the editor of our magazine the

618
00:24:34,710 --> 00:24:32,880
skeptic

619
00:24:37,750 --> 00:24:34,720
and today i'll be taking a reading from

620
00:24:41,110 --> 00:24:37,760
the skeptic march 2019

621
00:24:42,549 --> 00:24:41,120
which is volume 39 number one

622
00:24:44,310 --> 00:24:42,559
i'll be looking at a regular column

623
00:24:46,630 --> 00:24:44,320
called what goes around

624
00:24:47,590 --> 00:24:46,640
which starts off with a fact or a set of

625
00:24:49,590 --> 00:24:47,600
facts and

626
00:24:50,630 --> 00:24:49,600
through association works its way around

627
00:24:51,430 --> 00:24:50,640
through a whole lot of different things

628
00:24:53,830 --> 00:24:51,440
until you end up

629
00:24:55,430 --> 00:24:53,840
where you started from which shows that

630
00:24:57,909 --> 00:24:55,440
all knowledge is connected

631
00:24:59,110 --> 00:24:57,919
and connectable and this one i'll be

632
00:25:02,230 --> 00:24:59,120
looking at wishing

633
00:25:03,029 --> 00:25:02,240
gambling and calculating we start off

634
00:25:04,950 --> 00:25:03,039
with

635
00:25:10,870 --> 00:25:04,960
that well-known phenomenon called

636
00:25:14,070 --> 00:25:12,710
a confirmation bias is a tendency to

637
00:25:15,909 --> 00:25:14,080
interpret new evidence

638
00:25:17,909 --> 00:25:15,919
as confirmation of one's existing

639
00:25:21,029 --> 00:25:17,919
beliefs or theories

640
00:25:22,390 --> 00:25:21,039
a variation of this is apophenia the

641
00:25:24,230 --> 00:25:22,400
tendency to perceive

642
00:25:26,390 --> 00:25:24,240
connections and meaning between

643
00:25:28,390 --> 00:25:26,400
unrelated things

644
00:25:29,830 --> 00:25:28,400
that term was coined by psychiatrist

645
00:25:33,029 --> 00:25:29,840
claus conrad

646
00:25:35,350 --> 00:25:33,039
in his 1958 publication on the beginning

647
00:25:38,549 --> 00:25:35,360
stages of schizophrenia

648
00:25:39,990 --> 00:25:38,559
he defined it as unmotivated seeing of

649
00:25:42,470 --> 00:25:40,000
connections

650
00:25:43,510 --> 00:25:42,480
accompanied by a specific feeling of

651
00:25:46,390 --> 00:25:43,520
abnormal

652
00:25:48,310 --> 00:25:46,400
meaningfulness he described the early

653
00:25:51,590 --> 00:25:48,320
stages of delusional thought

654
00:25:53,669 --> 00:25:51,600
as self-referential over-interpretations

655
00:25:56,789 --> 00:25:53,679
of actual sensory perceptions

656
00:25:57,590 --> 00:25:56,799
as opposed to hallucinations apophenia

657
00:25:59,990 --> 00:25:57,600
has come to mean

658
00:26:01,909 --> 00:26:00,000
a universal human tendency to seek

659
00:26:06,070 --> 00:26:01,919
patterns in random information

660
00:26:08,789 --> 00:26:06,080
such as gambling the gambler's fallacy

661
00:26:11,669 --> 00:26:08,799
also known as the monte carlo fallacy or

662
00:26:13,590 --> 00:26:11,679
the fallacy of the maturity of chances

663
00:26:15,510 --> 00:26:13,600
is the mistaken belief that if something

664
00:26:17,430 --> 00:26:15,520
happens more frequently than normal

665
00:26:18,789 --> 00:26:17,440
during a given period it will happen

666
00:26:21,430 --> 00:26:18,799
less frequently

667
00:26:22,230 --> 00:26:21,440
in the future it may also be stated as

668
00:26:24,710 --> 00:26:22,240
the belief that

669
00:26:26,149 --> 00:26:24,720
if something happens less frequently

670
00:26:27,510 --> 00:26:26,159
than normal during a given period it

671
00:26:28,630 --> 00:26:27,520
will happen more frequently in the

672
00:26:30,390 --> 00:26:28,640
future

673
00:26:32,470 --> 00:26:30,400
in situations where the outcome being

674
00:26:34,470 --> 00:26:32,480
observed is truly random

675
00:26:35,909 --> 00:26:34,480
and consists of independent trials of a

676
00:26:39,350 --> 00:26:35,919
random process

677
00:26:41,590 --> 00:26:39,360
this belief is false it is a fallacy

678
00:26:43,590 --> 00:26:41,600
that a sequence of trials carries a

679
00:26:46,549 --> 00:26:43,600
memory of past results

680
00:26:47,990 --> 00:26:46,559
which tend to favor or disfavor future

681
00:26:50,789 --> 00:26:48,000
outcomes

682
00:26:52,390 --> 00:26:50,799
the fallacy can arise in many situations

683
00:26:53,510 --> 00:26:52,400
but is most strongly associated with

684
00:26:56,630 --> 00:26:53,520
gambling

685
00:26:57,190 --> 00:26:56,640
where it is common among players the

686
00:26:59,590 --> 00:26:57,200
term

687
00:27:00,710 --> 00:26:59,600
monte carlo fallacy originates from the

688
00:27:02,710 --> 00:27:00,720
best known example

689
00:27:05,510 --> 00:27:02,720
of the phenomenon which occurred in the

690
00:27:08,630 --> 00:27:05,520
monte carlo casino in 1913

691
00:27:10,149 --> 00:27:08,640
during a game of roulette roulette is

692
00:27:11,350 --> 00:27:10,159
named after the french word meaning

693
00:27:13,269 --> 00:27:11,360
little wheel

694
00:27:14,789 --> 00:27:13,279
and players may choose to place bets on

695
00:27:16,950 --> 00:27:14,799
either a single number

696
00:27:18,310 --> 00:27:16,960
various groupings of numbers red or

697
00:27:21,750 --> 00:27:18,320
black odd or even

698
00:27:22,470 --> 00:27:21,760
high or low on august 18 the ball fell

699
00:27:26,310 --> 00:27:22,480
on black

700
00:27:28,789 --> 00:27:26,320
26 times in a row this was an extremely

701
00:27:29,510 --> 00:27:28,799
uncommon occurrence with a probability

702
00:27:33,430 --> 00:27:29,520
about one

703
00:27:34,149 --> 00:27:33,440
in 33 million gamblers lost millions of

704
00:27:36,310 --> 00:27:34,159
francs

705
00:27:37,430 --> 00:27:36,320
betting against black reasoning

706
00:27:39,990 --> 00:27:37,440
incorrectly

707
00:27:41,830 --> 00:27:40,000
that the streak was causing an imbalance

708
00:27:43,830 --> 00:27:41,840
in the randomness of the wheel

709
00:27:46,230 --> 00:27:43,840
that it had to be followed by a long

710
00:27:49,750 --> 00:27:46,240
streak of red

711
00:27:52,310 --> 00:27:49,760
it didn't well eventually they had read

712
00:27:53,950 --> 00:27:52,320
on after a long time roulette has been

713
00:27:56,230 --> 00:27:53,960
played in its present form as early as

714
00:27:57,830 --> 00:27:56,240
1796 in paris

715
00:27:59,350 --> 00:27:57,840
an early description of the roulette

716
00:28:01,909 --> 00:27:59,360
game in its current form

717
00:28:04,070 --> 00:28:01,919
is found in a french novel la roulette

718
00:28:06,710 --> 00:28:04,080
uh

719
00:28:07,669 --> 00:28:06,720
it's a history of a player by jacques

720
00:28:09,430 --> 00:28:07,679
leblais

721
00:28:11,029 --> 00:28:09,440
which describes a roulette wheel in the

722
00:28:14,870 --> 00:28:11,039
palais royal in paris

723
00:28:17,590 --> 00:28:14,880
in 1796. the first form of roulette

724
00:28:18,950 --> 00:28:17,600
was devised in 18th century france the

725
00:28:21,029 --> 00:28:18,960
roulette mechanism

726
00:28:22,549 --> 00:28:21,039
is a hybrid of a gaming wheel invented

727
00:28:25,750 --> 00:28:22,559
in 1720

728
00:28:28,389 --> 00:28:25,760
and the italian game beribe

729
00:28:30,389 --> 00:28:28,399
this wheel has places number one to 36

730
00:28:32,789 --> 00:28:30,399
and in the european version one

731
00:28:33,669 --> 00:28:32,799
zero though in the american version

732
00:28:36,230 --> 00:28:33,679
there is a zero

733
00:28:37,909 --> 00:28:36,240
and a double zero which gives the house

734
00:28:41,350 --> 00:28:37,919
better odds

735
00:28:43,669 --> 00:28:41,360
many historians believe blaise pascal

736
00:28:45,830 --> 00:28:43,679
introduced a primitive form of roulette

737
00:28:48,549 --> 00:28:45,840
in the 17th century in his search for a

738
00:28:52,230 --> 00:28:48,559
perpetual motion machine

739
00:28:54,950 --> 00:28:52,240
pascal who lived from 1623 to 1662

740
00:28:55,669 --> 00:28:54,960
was a french child prodigy mathematician

741
00:28:59,350 --> 00:28:55,679
physicist

742
00:29:02,070 --> 00:28:59,360
inventor writer and catholic theologian

743
00:29:03,750 --> 00:29:02,080
his early work was in the natural and

744
00:29:05,590 --> 00:29:03,760
applied sciences where he made

745
00:29:08,149 --> 00:29:05,600
important contributions to the study of

746
00:29:09,190 --> 00:29:08,159
fluids and the concepts of pressure and

747
00:29:11,750 --> 00:29:09,200
vacuum

748
00:29:13,510 --> 00:29:11,760
by generalizing the work of evangelistic

749
00:29:15,110 --> 00:29:13,520
torticelli

750
00:29:16,549 --> 00:29:15,120
pascal also wrote in defense of the

751
00:29:19,350 --> 00:29:16,559
scientific method

752
00:29:20,230 --> 00:29:19,360
in 1642 while still a teenager he

753
00:29:23,110 --> 00:29:20,240
started some

754
00:29:24,710 --> 00:29:23,120
pioneering work on calculating machines

755
00:29:26,070 --> 00:29:24,720
after three years of effort and 50

756
00:29:27,990 --> 00:29:26,080
prototypes he built 20

757
00:29:29,430 --> 00:29:28,000
finnish machines called pascal's

758
00:29:31,110 --> 00:29:29,440
calculators

759
00:29:34,310 --> 00:29:31,120
establishing him as one of the first

760
00:29:36,549 --> 00:29:34,320
inventors of the mechanical calculator

761
00:29:39,110 --> 00:29:36,559
pascal and his sister were influenced by

762
00:29:41,669 --> 00:29:39,120
doctors treating his father's broken hip

763
00:29:43,590 --> 00:29:41,679
who were followers of jansenism a

764
00:29:47,430 --> 00:29:43,600
splinter group from the catholic church

765
00:29:49,510 --> 00:29:47,440
that espoused moral rigor and asceticism

766
00:29:51,269 --> 00:29:49,520
unlike his sister he fell out with the

767
00:29:51,830 --> 00:29:51,279
movement and followed what some have

768
00:29:56,230 --> 00:29:51,840
called

769
00:29:58,389 --> 00:29:56,240
his worldly period 1648-54

770
00:30:01,590 --> 00:29:58,399
however following an intense religious

771
00:30:03,350 --> 00:30:01,600
vision he reconverted to catholicism

772
00:30:04,630 --> 00:30:03,360
it was during this period that he wrote

773
00:30:07,909 --> 00:30:04,640
two of his most famous

774
00:30:08,950 --> 00:30:07,919
epithets the first goes the heart has

775
00:30:11,990 --> 00:30:08,960
its reasons

776
00:30:12,950 --> 00:30:12,000
of which reason knows nothing and the

777
00:30:15,029 --> 00:30:12,960
second is

778
00:30:17,590 --> 00:30:15,039
we almost invariably arrive at our

779
00:30:19,669 --> 00:30:17,600
beliefs not on the basis of proof

780
00:30:21,029 --> 00:30:19,679
but on the basis of what we find

781
00:30:23,750 --> 00:30:21,039
attractive

782
00:30:25,029 --> 00:30:23,760
that latter statement in particular is a

783
00:30:27,909 --> 00:30:25,039
classic description

784
00:30:29,490 --> 00:30:27,919
of confirmation bias which brings us

785
00:30:33,350 --> 00:30:29,500
back to where we started from

786
00:30:36,590 --> 00:30:35,430
so that what goes around from the

787
00:30:39,830 --> 00:30:36,600
skeptic march

788
00:30:42,310 --> 00:30:39,840
2019 and you can read that issue

789
00:30:43,630 --> 00:30:42,320
and 39 years worth of other ones on our

790
00:30:46,149 --> 00:30:43,640
website

791
00:30:53,030 --> 00:30:46,159
skeptics.com.eu free to download

792
00:31:01,990 --> 00:30:59,350
[Music]

793
00:31:02,870 --> 00:31:02,000
greetings listeners it's me captain

794
00:31:05,190 --> 00:31:02,880
disillusion

795
00:31:06,149 --> 00:31:05,200
on my youtube channel called captain

796
00:31:10,710 --> 00:31:06,159
disillusion

797
00:31:12,630 --> 00:31:10,720
videos of the strange and unbelievable

798
00:31:14,549 --> 00:31:12,640
i explain how inter-frame video

799
00:31:17,110 --> 00:31:14,559
compression 3d motion tracking

800
00:31:19,509 --> 00:31:17,120
and stock vfx elements prove that justin

801
00:31:21,669 --> 00:31:19,519
bieber is not a secret reptilian alien

802
00:31:23,509 --> 00:31:21,679
that those videos of ghost cars are just

803
00:31:25,350 --> 00:31:23,519
unintentional optical illusions

804
00:31:26,789 --> 00:31:25,360
and that lightning did not strike a few

805
00:31:27,909 --> 00:31:26,799
feet away from a girl on a beach as we

806
00:31:30,549 --> 00:31:27,919
saw on the news

807
00:31:33,110 --> 00:31:30,559
i'm real fun at parties my best friend

808
00:31:35,110 --> 00:31:33,120
is a lens flare eat a dimmer switch

809
00:31:37,110 --> 00:31:35,120
disillusioned i do know other people

810
00:31:39,590 --> 00:31:37,120
sometimes they even show up in my videos

811
00:31:40,149 --> 00:31:39,600
people like skepticism's grandpa james

812
00:31:42,710 --> 00:31:40,159
randy

813
00:31:44,549 --> 00:31:42,720
serg de soleil acrobat erica linz weight

814
00:31:46,630 --> 00:31:44,559
loss enthusiast pen gillette

815
00:31:48,389 --> 00:31:46,640
and the actual beekman from beekman's

816
00:31:49,110 --> 00:31:48,399
world i hope you'll check out my

817
00:31:51,269 --> 00:31:49,120
adventures

818
00:31:52,630 --> 00:31:51,279
interact with me in a platonic way and

819
00:31:55,350 --> 00:31:52,640
even consider becoming

820
00:31:56,070 --> 00:31:55,360
a patron of my work you can do all that

821
00:32:03,610 --> 00:31:56,080
and more

822
00:32:03,620 --> 00:32:13,350
[Music]

823
00:32:16,710 --> 00:32:15,269
now it's time once again to look through

824
00:32:19,110 --> 00:32:16,720
the archive

825
00:32:20,389 --> 00:32:19,120
dive into the trove that is trove at

826
00:32:23,350 --> 00:32:20,399
trove

827
00:32:26,070 --> 00:32:23,360
not nla.gov dot eu the online resource

828
00:32:28,149 --> 00:32:26,080
from the national library of australia

829
00:32:31,029 --> 00:32:28,159
gazette's magazine's periodicals

830
00:32:33,909 --> 00:32:31,039
newspapers articles items reports

831
00:32:40,830 --> 00:32:33,919
all digitized and searchable going back

832
00:32:45,750 --> 00:32:42,310
decades

833
00:32:48,870 --> 00:32:45,760
and in keeping with our series

834
00:32:52,950 --> 00:32:48,880
on trove where we look for the more uh

835
00:32:55,909 --> 00:32:52,960
classical forms of skepticism ufos

836
00:32:59,029 --> 00:32:55,919
yowies yetis that sort of thing this

837
00:33:03,110 --> 00:32:59,039
week i'm going to look for references

838
00:33:04,549 --> 00:33:03,120
to the term esp

839
00:33:06,389 --> 00:33:04,559
now that's an old-fashioned term you

840
00:33:11,190 --> 00:33:06,399
really don't hear it much anymore

841
00:33:14,789 --> 00:33:11,200
esp extra sensory perception

842
00:33:18,190 --> 00:33:14,799
and i will read out two

843
00:33:20,070 --> 00:33:18,200
returns on the search both from the year

844
00:33:23,430 --> 00:33:20,080
1938

845
00:33:24,900 --> 00:33:23,440
and both involving a certain uh

846
00:33:31,750 --> 00:33:24,910
dr ryan

847
00:33:35,990 --> 00:33:33,830
now the first result comes from the

848
00:33:37,269 --> 00:33:36,000
shepparton advertiser in the state of

849
00:33:39,909 --> 00:33:37,279
victoria

850
00:33:41,830 --> 00:33:39,919
and according to this it says from 1914

851
00:33:46,070 --> 00:33:41,840
to 1953

852
00:33:47,750 --> 00:33:46,080
on friday the 22nd of april 1938 on page

853
00:33:51,990 --> 00:33:47,760
19 we read

854
00:33:55,029 --> 00:33:52,000
sixth sense english search for esp

855
00:33:55,430 --> 00:33:55,039
air mail our special service london

856
00:34:00,710 --> 00:33:55,440
march

857
00:34:03,110 --> 00:34:00,720
19. english people appear to be lacking

858
00:34:04,789 --> 00:34:03,120
in the sixth sense claimed to have been

859
00:34:07,669 --> 00:34:04,799
found in america

860
00:34:08,550 --> 00:34:07,679
scientists have failed to discover the

861
00:34:11,190 --> 00:34:08,560
existence of

862
00:34:12,629 --> 00:34:11,200
extra sensory perception known

863
00:34:16,149 --> 00:34:12,639
familiarly in the

864
00:34:16,550 --> 00:34:16,159
states as esp during the past three

865
00:34:19,750 --> 00:34:16,560
years

866
00:34:22,149 --> 00:34:19,760
dr ryan a psychologist at duke

867
00:34:24,310 --> 00:34:22,159
university north carolina

868
00:34:27,270 --> 00:34:24,320
has been experimenting with a special

869
00:34:30,069 --> 00:34:27,280
set of 25 cards by means of which

870
00:34:31,829 --> 00:34:30,079
he declares he has proved the existence

871
00:34:34,470 --> 00:34:31,839
of a sixth sense

872
00:34:36,550 --> 00:34:34,480
in the same period professor thalus

873
00:34:37,909 --> 00:34:36,560
professor of psychology at glasgow

874
00:34:40,470 --> 00:34:37,919
university and mr

875
00:34:41,589 --> 00:34:40,480
s g soul mathematician of london

876
00:34:44,069 --> 00:34:41,599
university

877
00:34:44,710 --> 00:34:44,079
have experimented with the same type of

878
00:34:48,470 --> 00:34:44,720
cards

879
00:34:51,190 --> 00:34:48,480
without finding a vestige of esp

880
00:34:52,950 --> 00:34:51,200
dr ryan's theories have been so widely

881
00:34:56,710 --> 00:34:52,960
accepted in america that his

882
00:34:59,829 --> 00:34:56,720
cards are used in a fireside game

883
00:35:00,790 --> 00:34:59,839
and are sold on all bookstalls each five

884
00:35:04,310 --> 00:35:00,800
in a pack

885
00:35:08,870 --> 00:35:04,320
of 25 is marked with one of five symbols

886
00:35:11,990 --> 00:35:08,880
star cross oblong circle or wave

887
00:35:14,069 --> 00:35:12,000
the test is to call each card without

888
00:35:15,910 --> 00:35:14,079
seeing its face

889
00:35:18,870 --> 00:35:15,920
and of course these days those cards are

890
00:35:21,910 --> 00:35:18,880
known as xena cards or zener cards

891
00:35:22,710 --> 00:35:21,920
according to dr ryan mr sol said this

892
00:35:25,510 --> 00:35:22,720
week

893
00:35:28,310 --> 00:35:25,520
people tested by him were able to call

894
00:35:30,630 --> 00:35:28,320
correctly up to 18 out of 25

895
00:35:32,230 --> 00:35:30,640
or nearly four times the number allowed

896
00:35:35,190 --> 00:35:32,240
by the law of chance

897
00:35:36,390 --> 00:35:35,200
but my co-workers and i performed 100

898
00:35:38,950 --> 00:35:36,400
000 tests

899
00:35:40,630 --> 00:35:38,960
on more than 120 people in the

900
00:35:41,990 --> 00:35:40,640
psychological laboratory at the

901
00:35:44,230 --> 00:35:42,000
university college

902
00:35:45,589 --> 00:35:44,240
without finding one who could beat the

903
00:35:47,430 --> 00:35:45,599
laws of chance

904
00:35:49,190 --> 00:35:47,440
the results of professor phallus at

905
00:35:52,230 --> 00:35:49,200
glasgow were equally

906
00:35:53,030 --> 00:35:52,240
negative so not off to a flying start

907
00:35:56,310 --> 00:35:53,040
there for dr

908
00:36:00,310 --> 00:35:56,320
ryan and his uh his cards

909
00:36:03,510 --> 00:36:00,320
and again that was from april 1938

910
00:36:06,870 --> 00:36:03,520
so let's skip forward a few months to

911
00:36:11,190 --> 00:36:06,880
october 1938 the 22nd of october

912
00:36:12,950 --> 00:36:11,200
in the world's news from sydney and it

913
00:36:15,390 --> 00:36:12,960
looks like whatever that was it would

914
00:36:18,470 --> 00:36:15,400
lasted from 1901 to

915
00:36:21,589 --> 00:36:18,480
1955. page three

916
00:36:25,270 --> 00:36:21,599
double page article have you

917
00:36:28,950 --> 00:36:25,280
esp powers trying out

918
00:36:31,270 --> 00:36:28,960
telepathy and there's a rather dramatic

919
00:36:34,790 --> 00:36:31,280
picture of a

920
00:36:38,069 --> 00:36:34,800
lady lying down and looking rather

921
00:36:41,109 --> 00:36:38,079
concerned telepathy and

922
00:36:43,270 --> 00:36:41,119
clairvoyance perhaps you possess one

923
00:36:45,510 --> 00:36:43,280
or the other or both of these strange

924
00:36:47,349 --> 00:36:45,520
abilities that up until the last

925
00:36:49,910 --> 00:36:47,359
few years have been associated in the

926
00:36:51,589 --> 00:36:49,920
public mind with the black arts

927
00:36:53,030 --> 00:36:51,599
possess them and don't know a thing

928
00:36:56,150 --> 00:36:53,040
about it

929
00:36:58,870 --> 00:36:56,160
one chance in five your mind is a living

930
00:37:00,230 --> 00:36:58,880
radio receiver capable of apprehending

931
00:37:03,430 --> 00:37:00,240
messages sent out by

932
00:37:06,310 --> 00:37:03,440
other minds unspoken unsingled

933
00:37:06,950 --> 00:37:06,320
inaudible messages picked up when you

934
00:37:08,870 --> 00:37:06,960
tune

935
00:37:10,230 --> 00:37:08,880
in on thoughts projected through the

936
00:37:12,790 --> 00:37:10,240
ether

937
00:37:14,550 --> 00:37:12,800
that's telepathy don't forget this comes

938
00:37:17,349 --> 00:37:14,560
from 1938

939
00:37:18,230 --> 00:37:17,359
same chance but you're a super x-ray

940
00:37:20,790 --> 00:37:18,240
machine

941
00:37:23,349 --> 00:37:20,800
that you have some astonishing power

942
00:37:26,470 --> 00:37:23,359
outside the regular recognized senses

943
00:37:27,430 --> 00:37:26,480
that enables you to see hidden objects

944
00:37:30,790 --> 00:37:27,440
that really

945
00:37:34,150 --> 00:37:30,800
you can't see or feel or smell or taste

946
00:37:36,630 --> 00:37:34,160
perceive them even through brick

947
00:37:37,589 --> 00:37:36,640
walls or from a distance of miles and

948
00:37:40,790 --> 00:37:37,599
miles

949
00:37:42,390 --> 00:37:40,800
see them without use of your eyes that's

950
00:37:44,630 --> 00:37:42,400
clairvoyance

951
00:37:46,069 --> 00:37:44,640
and the interesting part about the whole

952
00:37:47,990 --> 00:37:46,079
thing is that you can start

953
00:37:49,750 --> 00:37:48,000
right out testing yourself and your

954
00:37:52,630 --> 00:37:49,760
friends for hidden powers

955
00:37:53,270 --> 00:37:52,640
of telepathy and clairvoyance in fact it

956
00:37:56,550 --> 00:37:53,280
won't be

957
00:37:57,030 --> 00:37:56,560
at all surprising if esp parties become

958
00:37:59,670 --> 00:37:57,040
quite

959
00:38:00,630 --> 00:37:59,680
the vogue during the approaching social

960
00:38:05,190 --> 00:38:00,640
season

961
00:38:07,430 --> 00:38:05,200
pure telepathy what is esp

962
00:38:08,230 --> 00:38:07,440
it's the contraction for the inclusive

963
00:38:10,390 --> 00:38:08,240
term that

964
00:38:11,510 --> 00:38:10,400
scientists have given to these strange

965
00:38:15,030 --> 00:38:11,520
powers

966
00:38:16,790 --> 00:38:15,040
extra sensory perception perceiving by

967
00:38:18,310 --> 00:38:16,800
some power outside the regular

968
00:38:20,710 --> 00:38:18,320
recognized senses

969
00:38:21,990 --> 00:38:20,720
seeing feeling hearing tasting and

970
00:38:24,870 --> 00:38:22,000
smelling

971
00:38:26,390 --> 00:38:24,880
is there then such a thing as extra

972
00:38:29,109 --> 00:38:26,400
sensory perception

973
00:38:30,310 --> 00:38:29,119
as telepathy or clairvoyance let the

974
00:38:33,910 --> 00:38:30,320
reader judge

975
00:38:37,910 --> 00:38:33,920
we'll consider an investigation of pure

976
00:38:40,150 --> 00:38:37,920
telepathy here it is as made by dr

977
00:38:42,310 --> 00:38:40,160
jb ryan at duke university north

978
00:38:45,430 --> 00:38:42,320
carolina

979
00:38:48,470 --> 00:38:45,440
in a room at the university sits

980
00:38:51,109 --> 00:38:48,480
miss sarah ownby one of

981
00:38:53,430 --> 00:38:51,119
dr ryan's most valued assistants on the

982
00:38:56,150 --> 00:38:53,440
table before her face downward

983
00:38:57,750 --> 00:38:56,160
there is a deck of cards not playing

984
00:39:01,109 --> 00:38:57,760
cards but so-called

985
00:39:03,270 --> 00:39:01,119
esp cards the backs of the cards are not

986
00:39:06,069 --> 00:39:03,280
unlike those we use for games

987
00:39:06,870 --> 00:39:06,079
but there are only 25 of them in the

988
00:39:09,750 --> 00:39:06,880
deck

989
00:39:11,910 --> 00:39:09,760
the faces of the esp cards are nothing

990
00:39:14,630 --> 00:39:11,920
like those of playing cards

991
00:39:15,430 --> 00:39:14,640
there are five suits that is five sets

992
00:39:18,950 --> 00:39:15,440
of symbols

993
00:39:21,990 --> 00:39:18,960
a square a circle a star a maltese cross

994
00:39:25,030 --> 00:39:22,000
and a set of three wavy lines each

995
00:39:28,150 --> 00:39:25,040
appearing on five cards notice that

996
00:39:28,870 --> 00:39:28,160
these symbols are entirely different in

997
00:39:32,390 --> 00:39:28,880
outline

998
00:39:33,430 --> 00:39:32,400
from the others in another room 250

999
00:39:35,349 --> 00:39:33,440
miles away

1000
00:39:37,030 --> 00:39:35,359
sits another young woman miss may

1001
00:39:39,589 --> 00:39:37,040
francis turner

1002
00:39:40,550 --> 00:39:39,599
also an enthusiastic scientific

1003
00:39:44,069 --> 00:39:40,560
investigator

1004
00:39:46,710 --> 00:39:44,079
can own b lift off the top

1005
00:39:48,550 --> 00:39:46,720
card of her deck concentrate upon the

1006
00:39:51,670 --> 00:39:48,560
symbol she finds on it

1007
00:39:54,230 --> 00:39:51,680
send her thought waves over mountain

1008
00:39:55,910 --> 00:39:54,240
valley and stream and register that

1009
00:39:59,910 --> 00:39:55,920
image on the mind of miss

1010
00:40:01,750 --> 00:39:59,920
turner 250 miles away how many times can

1011
00:40:04,870 --> 00:40:01,760
she succeed in doing that

1012
00:40:07,589 --> 00:40:04,880
in 25 trials no

1013
00:40:10,150 --> 00:40:07,599
there's no chance of the two young women

1014
00:40:11,589 --> 00:40:10,160
having agreed upon any set order of the

1015
00:40:14,309 --> 00:40:11,599
cards in advance

1016
00:40:15,990 --> 00:40:14,319
the deck is shuffled and cut just before

1017
00:40:18,150 --> 00:40:16,000
the trial starts

1018
00:40:19,109 --> 00:40:18,160
they have set their watches have agreed

1019
00:40:21,589 --> 00:40:19,119
that the test

1020
00:40:23,589 --> 00:40:21,599
will start at a certain minute and that

1021
00:40:24,069 --> 00:40:23,599
five minutes of concentration shall be

1022
00:40:27,270 --> 00:40:24,079
used

1023
00:40:29,190 --> 00:40:27,280
for each card oh if i had a time machine

1024
00:40:32,069 --> 00:40:29,200
how i'd love to go back and

1025
00:40:33,270 --> 00:40:32,079
examine their protocols for that test we

1026
00:40:36,470 --> 00:40:33,280
read on

1027
00:40:38,630 --> 00:40:36,480
1 in 5 chance now

1028
00:40:39,750 --> 00:40:38,640
let's see how many symbols miss turner

1029
00:40:42,790 --> 00:40:39,760
should name correctly

1030
00:40:45,829 --> 00:40:42,800
if she relied upon pure guesswork

1031
00:40:46,790 --> 00:40:45,839
there are five each of the five symbols

1032
00:40:49,750 --> 00:40:46,800
in the 25

1033
00:40:50,309 --> 00:40:49,760
cards supposing there were only five

1034
00:40:52,710 --> 00:40:50,319
cards

1035
00:40:53,829 --> 00:40:52,720
each bearing a different symbol involved

1036
00:40:56,630 --> 00:40:53,839
in the test

1037
00:40:57,109 --> 00:40:56,640
it is obvious then that she would have

1038
00:40:59,190 --> 00:40:57,119
one

1039
00:41:00,230 --> 00:40:59,200
chance in five of naming correctly the

1040
00:41:03,510 --> 00:41:00,240
symbol on

1041
00:41:05,030 --> 00:41:03,520
any designated card if she relied upon

1042
00:41:08,630 --> 00:41:05,040
pure guesswork alone

1043
00:41:10,870 --> 00:41:08,640
one chance in five of scoring a hit

1044
00:41:13,510 --> 00:41:10,880
this mathematical chance is not changed

1045
00:41:16,309 --> 00:41:13,520
by making up a deck of 25 cards

1046
00:41:18,230 --> 00:41:16,319
five bearing each symbol the one two

1047
00:41:20,950 --> 00:41:18,240
five chance still holds

1048
00:41:22,630 --> 00:41:20,960
pure guesswork should make five hits in

1049
00:41:24,950 --> 00:41:22,640
running through the full deck

1050
00:41:26,390 --> 00:41:24,960
if miss turner makes more than five hits

1051
00:41:28,550 --> 00:41:26,400
out of 25

1052
00:41:30,710 --> 00:41:28,560
there is a likelihood that something

1053
00:41:34,790 --> 00:41:30,720
beyond mere chance enters

1054
00:41:35,670 --> 00:41:34,800
into her success when the minute hand of

1055
00:41:38,790 --> 00:41:35,680
her watch

1056
00:41:42,550 --> 00:41:38,800
passes the agreed upon time miss ownby

1057
00:41:45,670 --> 00:41:42,560
picks off a card holds it before her

1058
00:41:49,109 --> 00:41:45,680
concentrates upon it for five minutes

1059
00:41:51,349 --> 00:41:49,119
miss turner intense concentration

1060
00:41:52,630 --> 00:41:51,359
finds a symbol shaping itself in her

1061
00:41:55,670 --> 00:41:52,640
mind

1062
00:41:57,670 --> 00:41:55,680
whatever it is she jots it down

1063
00:41:59,750 --> 00:41:57,680
at the end of five minutes the lady at

1064
00:42:02,870 --> 00:41:59,760
duke picks up the second card

1065
00:42:06,150 --> 00:42:02,880
and goes through the same process so on

1066
00:42:06,710 --> 00:42:06,160
she goes through the entire deck of 25

1067
00:42:09,030 --> 00:42:06,720
cards

1068
00:42:10,390 --> 00:42:09,040
five minutes for each card the test

1069
00:42:12,630 --> 00:42:10,400
takes two hours

1070
00:42:14,309 --> 00:42:12,640
and five minutes immediately upon

1071
00:42:16,790 --> 00:42:14,319
finishing her scoring

1072
00:42:18,630 --> 00:42:16,800
miss turner seals the sheet in an

1073
00:42:19,750 --> 00:42:18,640
envelope addresses it to the duke

1074
00:42:23,030 --> 00:42:19,760
university

1075
00:42:26,390 --> 00:42:23,040
and mails it the envelope comes

1076
00:42:28,950 --> 00:42:26,400
into dr ryan's hands with the seals

1077
00:42:30,630 --> 00:42:28,960
untampered with neither of these young

1078
00:42:33,190 --> 00:42:30,640
women has any stake in

1079
00:42:34,309 --> 00:42:33,200
proving or disproving the possibility of

1080
00:42:36,150 --> 00:42:34,319
telepathy

1081
00:42:38,390 --> 00:42:36,160
they are serious-minded scientists

1082
00:42:41,750 --> 00:42:38,400
seeking avidly for the truth

1083
00:42:46,390 --> 00:42:41,760
in three days trials miss turner scored

1084
00:42:47,349 --> 00:42:46,400
19 16 and 16 an average of 17 hits per

1085
00:42:49,349 --> 00:42:47,359
run

1086
00:42:51,349 --> 00:42:49,359
more than three times what could be

1087
00:42:53,589 --> 00:42:51,359
expected of chance

1088
00:42:55,270 --> 00:42:53,599
the long distance trials were carried on

1089
00:42:57,510 --> 00:42:55,280
for five more days

1090
00:42:58,309 --> 00:42:57,520
after the initial three under the same

1091
00:43:00,790 --> 00:42:58,319
conditions

1092
00:43:03,109 --> 00:43:00,800
except that the period of concentration

1093
00:43:06,870 --> 00:43:03,119
upon each card was cut down

1094
00:43:10,550 --> 00:43:06,880
then miss turner did less well but she

1095
00:43:11,589 --> 00:43:10,560
kept her average up to 10 hits per 25

1096
00:43:14,630 --> 00:43:11,599
cards

1097
00:43:17,349 --> 00:43:14,640
that is only one of hundreds upon

1098
00:43:18,870 --> 00:43:17,359
hundreds of tests some of them for

1099
00:43:21,510 --> 00:43:18,880
thousands of runs

1100
00:43:22,309 --> 00:43:21,520
through the esp deck with a great many

1101
00:43:26,309 --> 00:43:22,319
subjects

1102
00:43:27,510 --> 00:43:26,319
the test led to no conclusions the hits

1103
00:43:29,910 --> 00:43:27,520
were just about

1104
00:43:31,030 --> 00:43:29,920
the chance average but with other

1105
00:43:34,230 --> 00:43:31,040
subjects the average

1106
00:43:37,430 --> 00:43:34,240
is one in five results were significant

1107
00:43:38,470 --> 00:43:37,440
often amazing the probabilities are that

1108
00:43:41,589 --> 00:43:38,480
most of us

1109
00:43:43,910 --> 00:43:41,599
admit the possibility of telepathy

1110
00:43:45,510 --> 00:43:43,920
the transmission of ideas from one mind

1111
00:43:47,829 --> 00:43:45,520
to another without using

1112
00:43:48,870 --> 00:43:47,839
any of the recognized senses but

1113
00:43:50,550 --> 00:43:48,880
clairvoyance

1114
00:43:52,470 --> 00:43:50,560
actually to perceive something without

1115
00:43:54,550 --> 00:43:52,480
seeing it or having its image

1116
00:43:57,750 --> 00:43:54,560
transmitted by telepathy

1117
00:43:59,270 --> 00:43:57,760
is something else again here is one of

1118
00:44:01,829 --> 00:43:59,280
dr ryan's tests

1119
00:44:02,790 --> 00:44:01,839
he is in his laboratory in comes a

1120
00:44:06,390 --> 00:44:02,800
student named

1121
00:44:07,990 --> 00:44:06,400
pierce who has been much interested in

1122
00:44:10,390 --> 00:44:08,000
the experiments

1123
00:44:12,950 --> 00:44:10,400
he is hurrying to keep an engagement

1124
00:44:16,550 --> 00:44:12,960
doesn't even take off his coats

1125
00:44:17,750 --> 00:44:16,560
oh come on urges dr ryan let's run a

1126
00:44:20,150 --> 00:44:17,760
couple of tests

1127
00:44:21,750 --> 00:44:20,160
pierce looks at his watch and agrees if

1128
00:44:24,309 --> 00:44:21,760
they don't take too long

1129
00:44:26,230 --> 00:44:24,319
the professor takes up a deck of esp

1130
00:44:29,030 --> 00:44:26,240
cards and shuffles and cuts them

1131
00:44:31,829 --> 00:44:29,040
lays them face down on the table asks

1132
00:44:33,829 --> 00:44:31,839
piers to name the top card

1133
00:44:35,910 --> 00:44:33,839
there can be no telepathy in this dr

1134
00:44:37,030 --> 00:44:35,920
ryan doesn't know what the top card is

1135
00:44:39,910 --> 00:44:37,040
and neither does the

1136
00:44:40,470 --> 00:44:39,920
subject the latter guesses and guesses

1137
00:44:44,950 --> 00:44:40,480
wrong

1138
00:44:47,430 --> 00:44:44,960
probably he was guessing

1139
00:44:49,589 --> 00:44:47,440
come pierce if you can't do better than

1140
00:44:52,309 --> 00:44:49,599
that ben is the investigator

1141
00:44:53,589 --> 00:44:52,319
as he shuffles and cuts again i'll bet

1142
00:44:56,390 --> 00:44:53,599
you twenty dollars

1143
00:44:57,990 --> 00:44:56,400
you can't name the top card but pierce

1144
00:45:01,109 --> 00:44:58,000
taking hold of himself

1145
00:45:02,790 --> 00:45:01,119
does name it correctly on they go

1146
00:45:04,790 --> 00:45:02,800
dr ryan shuffling and cutting and

1147
00:45:08,390 --> 00:45:04,800
repeating his twenty dollar bet

1148
00:45:10,870 --> 00:45:08,400
hit after hit pierce scored

1149
00:45:12,230 --> 00:45:10,880
the attention didn't relax until he had

1150
00:45:14,470 --> 00:45:12,240
named the top card

1151
00:45:16,550 --> 00:45:14,480
which neither he nor the professor could

1152
00:45:17,589 --> 00:45:16,560
possibly know by any ordinary means of

1153
00:45:21,109 --> 00:45:17,599
perception

1154
00:45:23,829 --> 00:45:21,119
correctly 25 times in succession

1155
00:45:24,630 --> 00:45:23,839
pierce calling 25 cards in a row

1156
00:45:26,950 --> 00:45:24,640
correctly

1157
00:45:27,750 --> 00:45:26,960
was the most phenomenal thing that i

1158
00:45:30,790 --> 00:45:27,760
have ever

1159
00:45:33,030 --> 00:45:30,800
observed writes dr ryan

1160
00:45:34,230 --> 00:45:33,040
the odds against his feet having been

1161
00:45:37,750 --> 00:45:34,240
due to pure

1162
00:45:38,550 --> 00:45:37,760
unadulterated chance are 298 quad

1163
00:45:46,710 --> 00:45:38,560
trillion

1164
00:45:47,750 --> 00:45:46,720
876 million nine hundred and fifty three

1165
00:45:50,630 --> 00:45:47,760
thousand

1166
00:45:52,390 --> 00:45:50,640
one hundred and twenty five well you'll

1167
00:45:55,670 --> 00:45:52,400
never get me to do that again

1168
00:45:58,390 --> 00:45:55,680
pierce broke out when it was over why

1169
00:45:59,030 --> 00:45:58,400
dr rhine asks you seem to do it easily

1170
00:46:01,750 --> 00:45:59,040
enough

1171
00:46:03,510 --> 00:46:01,760
well i don't know why exactly but you'll

1172
00:46:06,069 --> 00:46:03,520
never get me to do it again

1173
00:46:08,150 --> 00:46:06,079
the subject held evidently such an

1174
00:46:09,990 --> 00:46:08,160
amazing display of clairvoyance takes

1175
00:46:13,589 --> 00:46:10,000
something out of this subject

1176
00:46:16,150 --> 00:46:13,599
did pierce collect his 500 no

1177
00:46:17,349 --> 00:46:16,160
the bets were all in fun it should be

1178
00:46:20,069 --> 00:46:17,359
explained that the method

1179
00:46:21,430 --> 00:46:20,079
used in this sensational test was

1180
00:46:25,190 --> 00:46:21,440
somewhat different from

1181
00:46:27,750 --> 00:46:25,200
that of the usual clairvoyance trial

1182
00:46:29,589 --> 00:46:27,760
systems of all sorts too numerous to

1183
00:46:32,309 --> 00:46:29,599
detail in this short article

1184
00:46:33,030 --> 00:46:32,319
are used in dr ryan's explorations of

1185
00:46:36,309 --> 00:46:33,040
the new

1186
00:46:39,109 --> 00:46:36,319
mental frontier one of them is to lay

1187
00:46:41,349 --> 00:46:39,119
the shuffled and cut deck face down on a

1188
00:46:41,990 --> 00:46:41,359
table and have the subject call the card

1189
00:46:45,030 --> 00:46:42,000
straight

1190
00:46:46,230 --> 00:46:45,040
down through no cards being removed

1191
00:46:49,829 --> 00:46:46,240
during the test

1192
00:46:52,309 --> 00:46:49,839
the checkup being deferred until the end

1193
00:46:53,430 --> 00:46:52,319
even in this test some remarkable scores

1194
00:46:57,430 --> 00:46:53,440
have been run

1195
00:47:00,550 --> 00:46:57,440
as many as 15 to 16 hits in 25

1196
00:47:03,990 --> 00:47:00,560
three times what chance would allow

1197
00:47:06,309 --> 00:47:04,000
and this in thousands of runs the tests

1198
00:47:08,150 --> 00:47:06,319
check and recheck each other both in

1199
00:47:10,390 --> 00:47:08,160
telepathy and clairvoyance

1200
00:47:11,829 --> 00:47:10,400
they are run with all sorts of

1201
00:47:14,309 --> 00:47:11,839
safeguards

1202
00:47:16,230 --> 00:47:14,319
and that's the end of that report and

1203
00:47:17,270 --> 00:47:16,240
again that comes to us from a newspaper

1204
00:47:22,549 --> 00:47:17,280
called the world's

1205
00:47:24,309 --> 00:47:22,559
news dated the 22nd of october 1938

1206
00:47:27,190 --> 00:47:24,319
and just briefly one of the many other

1207
00:47:29,510 --> 00:47:27,200
returns for the search esp

1208
00:47:31,270 --> 00:47:29,520
lands us on the pages of the australian

1209
00:47:36,069 --> 00:47:31,280
woman's weekly

1210
00:47:38,790 --> 00:47:36,079
from the 23rd of july 1980

1211
00:47:39,750 --> 00:47:38,800
an article that's uh headlined what's

1212
00:47:44,150 --> 00:47:39,760
happening in

1213
00:47:47,270 --> 00:47:44,160
esp today question mark with the

1214
00:47:49,990 --> 00:47:47,280
sub headline psychic research was

1215
00:47:52,470 --> 00:47:50,000
long ago taken from the world of fiction

1216
00:47:53,750 --> 00:47:52,480
and is the subject of serious scientific

1217
00:47:56,309 --> 00:47:53,760
investigation

1218
00:47:57,750 --> 00:47:56,319
dr charles osborne a senior physics

1219
00:48:00,470 --> 00:47:57,760
lecturer at corefield

1220
00:48:04,150 --> 00:48:00,480
institute of technology has been delving

1221
00:48:07,270 --> 00:48:04,160
into the phenomenon of esp since 1977

1222
00:48:09,349 --> 00:48:07,280
and the first part says the world of the

1223
00:48:11,270 --> 00:48:09,359
psychic researcher is very different

1224
00:48:13,910 --> 00:48:11,280
from that depicted in the media

1225
00:48:15,589 --> 00:48:13,920
it is not a world of things that go bump

1226
00:48:17,910 --> 00:48:15,599
in the night or people with

1227
00:48:18,870 --> 00:48:17,920
superhuman powers rather most of the

1228
00:48:22,390 --> 00:48:18,880
research is

1229
00:48:25,270 --> 00:48:22,400
as routine as in other areas of science

1230
00:48:26,870 --> 00:48:25,280
so what is happening in esp now let me

1231
00:48:27,670 --> 00:48:26,880
see if i can cut to the chase this

1232
00:48:30,309 --> 00:48:27,680
article mentions

1233
00:48:31,589 --> 00:48:30,319
things like out-of-body experience

1234
00:48:34,950 --> 00:48:31,599
telepathy

1235
00:48:37,430 --> 00:48:34,960
work on esp children has produced

1236
00:48:38,390 --> 00:48:37,440
some extremely interesting results it

1237
00:48:41,390 --> 00:48:38,400
says

1238
00:48:42,790 --> 00:48:41,400
it even talks about metal bending

1239
00:48:45,910 --> 00:48:42,800
reincarnation

1240
00:48:48,549 --> 00:48:45,920
and the final paragraph says

1241
00:48:50,069 --> 00:48:48,559
what of the future in australia there is

1242
00:48:51,990 --> 00:48:50,079
a need for centralized testing

1243
00:48:52,950 --> 00:48:52,000
laboratories and more testing of

1244
00:48:55,589 --> 00:48:52,960
children

1245
00:48:57,829 --> 00:48:55,599
people who have had psychic experiences

1246
00:48:59,190 --> 00:48:57,839
should contact the corefield institute

1247
00:49:03,030 --> 00:48:59,200
of technology

1248
00:49:07,510 --> 00:49:03,040
900 dandenong road po box 197

1249
00:49:09,990 --> 00:49:07,520
crawfield east 3145

1250
00:49:11,109 --> 00:49:10,000
so there we go another trip through the

1251
00:49:13,510 --> 00:49:11,119
decades

1252
00:49:17,109 --> 00:49:13,520
of the digitized newspapers magazines

1253
00:49:19,109 --> 00:49:17,119
and so on at trove.nla.gov

1254
00:49:20,309 --> 00:49:19,119
and a bit of a nostalgia trip i must say

1255
00:49:41,910 --> 00:49:20,319
looking at

1256
00:49:45,829 --> 00:49:43,430
thank you for listening to the skeptic

1257
00:49:47,109 --> 00:49:45,839
zone now next week's show should be

1258
00:49:50,470 --> 00:49:47,119
interesting

1259
00:49:53,670 --> 00:49:50,480
uh it will be produced

1260
00:49:57,270 --> 00:49:53,680
uh well at least released

1261
00:49:58,549 --> 00:49:57,280
during skepticon 2020. hmm

1262
00:50:01,190 --> 00:49:58,559
i'll have to look at the schedule and

1263
00:50:03,109 --> 00:50:01,200
see what i can tie in for that one

1264
00:50:04,309 --> 00:50:03,119
and i think by this time next week we'll

1265
00:50:07,510 --> 00:50:04,319
know the winner

1266
00:50:09,589 --> 00:50:07,520
of the bent spoon award and if you're

1267
00:50:11,670 --> 00:50:09,599
curious to know who's in the uh

1268
00:50:13,870 --> 00:50:11,680
running for the bench spoon the award

1269
00:50:17,190 --> 00:50:13,880
nobody wants to win just go to

1270
00:50:19,190 --> 00:50:17,200
skeptics.com.edu and look at the list of

1271
00:50:20,309 --> 00:50:19,200
i would say hopeful nominees hopeless

1272
00:50:23,430 --> 00:50:20,319
nominees

1273
00:50:25,910 --> 00:50:23,440
something like that

1274
00:50:27,750 --> 00:50:25,920
and of course before i go thank you to

1275
00:50:29,670 --> 00:50:27,760
all those lovely wonderful

1276
00:50:32,030 --> 00:50:29,680
helpful people who subscribe to the

1277
00:50:33,750 --> 00:50:32,040
skeptic zone at patreon on paypal at

1278
00:50:35,910 --> 00:50:33,760
skepticzone.tv

1279
00:50:37,829 --> 00:50:35,920
there's a big link there you can't miss

1280
00:50:40,870 --> 00:50:37,839
it and during this

1281
00:50:42,630 --> 00:50:40,880
ridiculous year the support of skeptic

1282
00:50:45,109 --> 00:50:42,640
zone listeners has meant more to the

1283
00:50:47,190 --> 00:50:45,119
show than ever before

1284
00:50:48,470 --> 00:50:47,200
but for this week this is richard

1285
00:50:54,549 --> 00:50:48,480
saunders signing off

1286
00:50:56,390 --> 00:50:54,559
from sydney australia

1287
00:50:57,829 --> 00:50:56,400
you've been listening to the skeptic

1288
00:51:00,990 --> 00:50:57,839
zone podcast

1289
00:51:02,390 --> 00:51:01,000
please visit our website at

1290
00:51:05,510 --> 00:51:02,400
www.skepticzone.tv

1291
00:51:07,430 --> 00:51:05,520
for show notes contacts and to access

1292
00:51:10,950 --> 00:51:07,440
the back catalog of episodes

1293
00:51:13,030 --> 00:51:10,960
going back to 2008. you can follow the

1294
00:51:16,470 --> 00:51:13,040
skepticzone podcast on twitter

1295
00:51:20,069 --> 00:51:16,480
at skepticzone visit our facebook page

1296
00:51:21,430 --> 00:51:20,079
or leave a review on itunes you can also

1297
00:51:24,710 --> 00:51:21,440
support the skeptic zone

1298
00:51:25,430 --> 00:51:24,720
via patreon or paypal the skeptic zone

1299
00:51:28,309 --> 00:51:25,440
podcast

1300
00:51:30,150 --> 00:51:28,319
is an independent production the views

1301
00:51:30,549 --> 00:51:30,160
and opinions expressed on the skeptic

1302
00:51:32,549 --> 00:51:30,559
zone

1303
00:51:34,470 --> 00:51:32,559
are not necessarily those of australian

1304
00:51:36,050 --> 00:51:34,480
skeptics or any other

1305
00:51:49,670 --> 00:51:36,060
skeptical organization

1306
00:51:53,670 --> 00:51:51,349
hello to the people who listen after the

1307
00:51:55,190 --> 00:51:53,680
music the afterthoughts for the dice

1308
00:51:58,309 --> 00:51:55,200
game

1309
00:52:01,349 --> 00:51:58,319
wow that's my giant

1310
00:52:02,710 --> 00:52:01,359
tub of dye diced day

1311
00:52:04,470 --> 00:52:02,720
why do i always get those things

1312
00:52:05,910 --> 00:52:04,480
confused all right i'm going to do a

1313
00:52:08,710 --> 00:52:05,920
very interesting one this week

1314
00:52:09,990 --> 00:52:08,720
normally we roll a d10 10 sided or a d6

1315
00:52:12,630 --> 00:52:10,000
the classic

1316
00:52:13,990 --> 00:52:12,640
three times and you use your psychic

1317
00:52:17,430 --> 00:52:14,000
powers to predict

1318
00:52:21,430 --> 00:52:17,440
see i'll use that one i'll use this one

1319
00:52:25,109 --> 00:52:21,440
i'll use this one and i'll use

1320
00:52:26,069 --> 00:52:25,119
this one okay i've got four variations

1321
00:52:29,270 --> 00:52:26,079
this week

1322
00:52:31,270 --> 00:52:29,280
to try out i'm gonna roll one uh each

1323
00:52:34,950 --> 00:52:31,280
one once

1324
00:52:39,589 --> 00:52:34,960
starting with a d

1325
00:52:41,670 --> 00:52:39,599
four a four-sided die

1326
00:52:43,030 --> 00:52:41,680
four-sided dice so here we go sorry

1327
00:52:46,630 --> 00:52:43,040
susan gerbic this

1328
00:52:50,150 --> 00:52:46,640
diet does not go up to five

1329
00:52:52,230 --> 00:52:50,160
or six so here we go

1330
00:52:53,910 --> 00:52:52,240
a d it's a shape of a pyramid it's quite

1331
00:52:54,630 --> 00:52:53,920
interesting i think i must have picked

1332
00:52:57,030 --> 00:52:54,640
this up in

1333
00:52:57,940 --> 00:52:57,040
a dragon con okay here we go the d4

1334
00:52:59,750 --> 00:52:57,950
first number is

1335
00:53:04,950 --> 00:52:59,760
[Music]

1336
00:53:09,109 --> 00:53:08,069
two the next one is the classic of

1337
00:53:12,150 --> 00:53:09,119
course a d6

1338
00:53:13,430 --> 00:53:12,160
excited the most uh widely used die in

1339
00:53:18,069 --> 00:53:13,440
the world i suppose

1340
00:53:23,349 --> 00:53:20,790
six second number six put that aside the

1341
00:53:27,190 --> 00:53:23,359
next one is a d10

1342
00:53:29,109 --> 00:53:27,200
oh lovely sort of translucent blue

1343
00:53:30,470 --> 00:53:29,119
um it's another thing i miss about not

1344
00:53:32,069 --> 00:53:30,480
being at uh

1345
00:53:34,630 --> 00:53:32,079
conventions and so forth because i give

1346
00:53:38,549 --> 00:53:34,640
away these skeptics own d10s

1347
00:53:44,150 --> 00:53:38,559
okay here we go ten

1348
00:53:47,750 --> 00:53:46,390
you have no idea how often i've started

1349
00:53:50,950 --> 00:53:47,760
recording

1350
00:53:51,589 --> 00:53:50,960
only to have planes come over there's

1351
00:53:54,829 --> 00:53:51,599
one now

1352
00:53:57,990 --> 00:53:54,839
anyway and the last one is a d

1353
00:54:00,710 --> 00:53:58,000
20. a d20

1354
00:54:02,549 --> 00:54:00,720
whatever pale blue i think d20 here we

1355
00:54:06,549 --> 00:54:02,559
go

1356
00:54:12,069 --> 00:54:06,559
and the number is what's that

1357
00:54:19,349 --> 00:54:15,109
this week's winning numbers are